Trump's presidency is indicative of a nation-threatening division rather than its root cause. I believe contemporary America sits at the most precarious moment in the nation's history since the Civil War.
Learning from History
This piece draws inspiration from Jared Diamond's work Upheaval, which analyzes seven countries that experienced severe crises. The framework examines how nations respond to existential challenges—and what separates those that survive from those that fracture.
Nations, like individuals, face moments of crisis that reveal their fundamental character.
Two cases are particularly instructive: Chile under Pinochet and Indonesia under Suharto. Both experienced profound political upheaval. Both had their trajectories shaped by how different factions responded to crisis.
The Division We Face
American political polarization has reached levels that make productive governance nearly impossible. We've sorted ourselves geographically, informationally, and socially. Democrats and Republicans increasingly live in different worlds with different facts.
This isn't about policy disagreements—healthy democracies have those. This is about fundamental incompatibility in how different Americans understand reality itself.
Money Talks
Economic inequality exacerbates political division. When different economic classes have radically different experiences of the economy, they naturally develop radically different political preferences. The wealthy live in one America; the working class lives in another.
Historical precedent suggests this combination—political polarization plus economic stratification—creates conditions ripe for democratic breakdown.
The Path Forward
The nations that survive crises are those that can honestly assess their situation, take responsibility for problems rather than assigning blame, and make selective changes while preserving core values.
Whether America can do this remains an open question. The answer will define the next generation of American history.